Policymakers offered insights on UK’s nuclear forces

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The special collection of nine essays is designed to support policymakers and those working in the defence, security and resilience sectors.

They provide fresh perspectives on the challenges facing the world and are also designed to contribute to the ongoing Strategic Defence Review. The essays were launched at an event in RUSI.

Academics who contributed are members of the University of Exeter’s Defence, Security and Resilience Network, which brings together more than 200 interdisciplinary academics from across the University.

In the collection, Dr Lewys Brace, Co-Director of the University’s Centre for Computational Social Science, outlines the growing phenomenon of self-initiated terrorists, with his research showing that these cases have been notoriously hard to detect due to their nature, compounded by technological affordances driving an increase in younger individuals forming their own bespoke ideology that aligns with their own personal experiences.

The essays have been welcomed by General (Retd) Sir Patrick Sanders KCB CBE DSO, who said in a foreword: “As one of the UK Armed Forces six Chiefs of Staff over the last five years in two separate roles, most recently as Chief of the General Staff (CGS), I placed a huge premium on the contribution made by academia in providing independent analysis on the range of issues exercising policy makers, intelligence, agencies and military planners.

"This independence, enriched and underpinned by academic rigour, offers alternative and fresh perspectives, has the benefit of distance from political expediency and can serve as a vital antidote to the groupthink to which all government and military institutions can be prone.

“I can think of few better qualified or equipped to compile this collection than the University of Exeter whose reputation and impact in the sphere of strategic studies, international security, defence and climate change is formidably strong and only increasing.”

In the collection Dr David Blagden, who has worked with the Royal Navy, the Ministry of Defence’s (MoD) Futures Centre and served as a Specialist Adviser to the House of Lords’ International Relations and Defence Committee, outlines how UK nuclear forces currently need ‘augmenting’ just to preserve existing credibility. Dr Blagden said it is time to start thinking about how the UK’s wholly SSBN-based nuclear force can be hardened and/or diversified to ensure its resilience as submarine-hunting technology advances. Given the centrality of the nuclear deterrent to UK defence, this article provides some clear pathways for consideration.  

Professor Frances Tammer, who has decades of MoD and Cabinet Office experience, raises the frightening question of whether it could now be too late to respond if Iran develops nuclear weapons. Iran’s breakout time, the amount of time needed to produce sufficient weapons grade material for a nuclear weapon, could be achieved within a matter of a few weeks. The prospect of an Iran with nuclear weapons must be faced and the UK should plan accordingly.

A radical review of all strategy and policy towards Iran and the region cannot wait until the Strategic Defence Review is settled. Going forward, the UK must work closely with France and Germany but, more importantly, with the US and ensure there are no divisions or surprises. There may be a need to consider bringing China and Russia more fully into the negotiating arena because of the levers these countries can exert on Iran.

In her essay Professor Esther Reed, an expert in military ethics, calls for military officers to submit evidence about how they already care or have cared for the moral health of personnel and where they perceive gaps and/or other failings in institutional systems to undermine their efforts. She says the UK should continue working closely with allies in advancing moral injury/health research and make explicit in policy the need to consider the moral health of serving personnel and veterans alongside performance standards.

Professor Aurel Sari, one of the world’s principal experts on the legal aspects of hybrid warfare, says more should be done to ensure the public is better informed about the law of armed conflict LOAC), the recent conflict in Gaza has highlighted this gap, If not addressed, this gap may develop into a major vulnerability that risks constraining the UK Armed Forces’ room for manoeuvre in future. A key line of effort is the revision of the UK’s LOAC manual as a priority and encouraging and assisting like-minded nations to affirm settled understandings of the law and supporting expert institutions and communities to offer more balanced sources of commentary and information.

Dr Lewys Brace, Co-Director of the University’s Centre for Computational Social Science, outlines  the growing phenomenon of self-initiated terrorists, with his research showing that these cases have been notoriously hard to detect due to their nature, compounded by technological affordances driving an increase in younger individuals forming their own bespoke ideology that aligns with their own personal experiences. He recommends existing legislation should be improved, with Government agencies working together to develop a more holistic approach to combatting this growing phenomenon. This top-down approach should also be accompanied by a bottom-up approach involving  community-based measures, such as including lessons on how to spot mis/disinformation and extremist or radical content as part of the national curriculum. There should be an emphasis on tackling the root causes of attraction towards domestic online extremism, which is a whole government and societal issue.

The compendium also includes a wide array of other articles. These are about how to deliver AI at scale, the shortfalls in educational provision in disruptive and novel technologies, how a circular economy could be achieved and how climate change will impact military operations.