IATA sees double digit growth for passenger and air cargo demand
Image courtesy IATA
Total passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), was up 13.8% compared to March 2023. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), was up 12.3% year-on-year. The March load factor was 82.0% (+1.0ppt compared to March 2023).
International demand rose 18.9% compared to March 2023; capacity was up 18.8% year-on-year and the load factor improved to 81.6% (+0.1ppt on March 2023).
Domestic demand rose 6.6% compared to March 2023; capacity was up 3.4% year-on-year and the load factor was 82.6% (+2.5ppt compared to March 2023).
Willie Walsh (above), IATA’s Director General said: “Demand for travel is strong. And there is every indication that this should continue into the peak Northern Summer travel season. It is critical that we have the capacity to meet this demand and ensure a hassle-free travel experience for passengers. That means making urgent progress to resolve supply chain issues and for airports and air traffic management to be fully staffed and operating at maximum efficiency.
"While airlines are prepared for customer care and assistance when operational issues arise, they are fed-up of bearing the cost when delays and cancellations are the result of poor preparation in other parts of the value chain.”
Air passenger market in detail
Regional Breakdown - International Passenger Markets
All regions showed strong growth for international passenger markets in March 2024 compared to March 2023. Load factor performance was patchy, falling year-on-year in three of the six regions.
Asia-Pacific airlines continue to lead with way, with a 38.5% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 37.4% year-on-year and the load factor rose to 85.6% (+0.7ppt compared to March 2023), the highest among all regions. Major routes from Asia-Pacific display outstanding growth, although the number of scheduled air services from China to North America is still only 16.5% of pre-pandemic levels.
European carriers saw an 11.6% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 11.4% year-on-year, and the load factor was 79.9% (up just 0.1ppt compared to March 2023).
Middle Eastern airlines saw a 10.8% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 13.9% year-on-year and the load factor fell -2.1ppt to 77.5% compared to March 2023.
North American carriers saw a 14.5% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 14.8% year-on-year, and the load factor fell to 84.7% (-0.2ppt compared to March 2023).
Latin American airlines saw a 19.7% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity climbed 18.3% year-on-year. The load factor rose to 84.3% (+0.9ppt compared to March 2023).
African airlines saw an 8.1% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 11.0% year-on-year. The load factor fell to 70.3% (-1.9ppt compared to March 2023).
Domestic passenger markets
Domestic demand increased at a slower pace in March, moderating to typical pre-pandemic growth rates. China (+17.6% compared to March 2023) continued to be the leading market. Other markets showed stable growth with the exception of Australia. Its drop in growth may reflect the wider economic slowdown in Q1 in the country.
Air cargo
Meanwhile, IATA's data on global air cargo markets in March, shows continuing strong annual growth in demand.
Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), rose by 10.3% compared to March 2023 levels (11.4% for international operations). This is the fourth consecutive month of double-digit year-on-year growth.
Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs), increased by 7.3% compared to March 2023 (10.5% for international operations).
Walsh said: "Air cargo demand grew by 10.3% over the previous March. This contributed to a strong first quarter performance which slightly exceeded even the exceptionally strong 2021 first quarter performance during the COVID crisis. With global cross-border trade and industrial production continuing to show a moderate upward trend, 2024 is shaping up to be a solid year for air cargo."
Several factors in the operating environment should be noted:
- Global cross-border trade and industrial production increased by 1.2% and 1.6% respectively in February.
- In March, the manufacturing output Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 51.9, indicating expansion. The new export orders PMI also rose to 49.5, remaining slightly below the 50 threshold that would indicate growth expectations.
- Inflation saw a mixed picture in March. In the EU and Japan, inflation rates fell to 2.6% and 2.7% respectively, while rising in the US to 3.5%. In contrast, China experienced a slight deflation of -0.01%. This latest figure marks a return to deflation after February's brief period of inflation.
Air Cargo Market in Detail
March Regional Performance
Asia-Pacific airlines saw 14.3% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in March. Demand on the Asia-Europe route grew by 2.7 ppt to 17.0% and the within Asia market grew by 6.7 ppt to 11.8%. Capacity increased by 14.3% year-on-year.
North American carriers saw 0.9% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in March —the weakest among all regions. Demand on the North America–Europe trade lane grew by 2.9% year-on-year while Asia–North America grew by 4.7% year-on-year. March capacity decreased by -1.9% year-on-year.
European carriers saw 10.0% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in March. Intra-European air cargo rose by 24.7% year-on-year. Europe–Middle East routes saw demand grow by 38.3% year-on-year, while Europe–North America expanded by 2.9% year-on-year. March capacity increased 8.0% year-on-year.
Middle Eastern carriers saw 19.9% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in March – the strongest of all regions. The Middle East–Europe market was the strongest performing with 38.3% growth, ahead of Middle East-Asia which grew by 19.6% year-on-year. March capacity increased 10.6% year-on-year.
Latin American carriers saw 9.2% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in March. Capacity increased 7.0% year-on-year.
African airlines saw 14.2% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in March. Demand on Africa–Asia market increased to 22.9%, however this was a 19.8 ppt decrease compared to February’s performance and the largest contraction across the major route areas. March capacity increased by 17.3% year-on-year.
